Tornado and Hail Risk Extends Far Beyond Great Plains States

Many of the severe weather events that occurred outside of the Midwest in 2011, like the “Super Outbreak” of tornados that devastated much of Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Virginia, were seen as an anomaly. According to CoreLogic, however, historical data suggests that the frequency and severity of storms is more widespread than commonly believed.

CoreLogic, a provider of information, analytics and business services, released a new tornado and hail risk report that analyzes the risk associated with changing tornado and hail weather patterns outside of the narrow corridor in the Midwest known as “Tornado Alley.”

Tornado Alley is typically considered to encompass the Great Plains states and surrounding areas, spanning Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota and Illinois.

The report, “Tornado and Hail Risk Beyond Tornado Alley,” discusses the impact of record-breaking hazard events across the country in the past year, and provides insight into the extent of severe tornado and hail risk in geographic regions beyond the Great Plains.

“The apparent increase in the number of incidents and shift in geographic distribution of losses that occurred last year in the U.S. called the long-held notion of risk concentration in Tornado Alley into question, and is leading to changes in risk management policy and procedure,” said Dr. Howard Botts, vice president and director of database development for CoreLogic Spatial Solutions.

The perceived increase in the frequency and severity of tornado and hail events in recent years could be attributed to a number of factors, including improved observational tools, broadened geographic distribution of modern Doppler radar stations, population growth and migration to suburban areas.

Disaster news reporting 24/7 via television, online coverage and social media have affected public awareness and likely heightened sensitivity to severe weather events in recent years.

There also is growing scientific evidence that there has been an increase in severe weather outbreaks as the result of rising global temperatures.

Beyond Tornado Alley

Tornado risk actually extends across most of the eastern half of the United States, rather than being confined to the Midwest. At least 26 states have some area facing extreme tornado risk.

Estimated property damage within the Tornado Alley states from 2000-2011 was approximately $2.5 billion. In comparison, the 16 states located outside of Tornado Alley with the next highest numbers of tornado touchdowns totaled nearly $15.5 billion in property damage. Those states extend as far north as parts of Minnesota and as far south as Florida.

Hail Damage

At least 11 states have significant areas facing extreme hail risk, and almost every state east of the Rocky Mountains has some area facing a moderate or higher level of hail risk.

The area of highest hail risk extends outward from the central Great Plains to include states as far east as Georgia and the Carolinas.

Hail storms in the Tornado Alley region caused approximately $4.3 billion in property damage and nearly $1 billion in crop damage between 2000-2011. The 16 states with the next highest amounts of hail damage outside of Tornado Alley revealed about $3.2 billion in property damage and $400 million in crop damage over the same time period.

For a copy of the report, visit www.corelogic.com.