TSR Updates Hurricane Forecast

The UK-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) weather forecaster has issued a revised assessment of the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which indicates that it will be a more active season than previously expected.

TSR, which operates in cooperation with the Benfield Hazard Research Centre and University College London, headed by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea respectively, said there was a “high probability” that 2007 would produce “Atlantic basin and US landfalling tropical cyclone activity” about 75 percent above the 1950-2006 norm.

The pronouncement was based on “current and projected climate signals,” and “is the highest March forecast for activity in any year since the TSR replicated real-time forecasts started in 1984,” said the bulletin. “There is a high (86 percent) likelihood that activity will be in the top one-third of years historically.”

The forecast covers the first of June to the 30th of November, and employs data compiled through the end of February 2007. TSR said its “two predictors are the forecast July-September 2007 trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2007 sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic.

“The former influences cyclonic vorticity (the spinning up of storms) in the main hurricane track region, while the latter provides heat and moisture to power incipient storms in the main track region. At present TSR anticipates both predictors having a moderate enhancing effect on activity. Monthly updated forecasts will be issued through to August 2007.”