CoreLogic: 6.8M Homes at Risk for Hurricane-Related Storm Surge Damage

More than 6.8 million homes located on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are in danger of hurricane storm surge damage, according CoreLogic’s latest storm surge report.

The total cost for reconstruction of the homes located in 19 states and the District of Columbia is more than $1.5 trillion.

The property information and analytics provider’s 2016 Storm Surge Report release coincides with the June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season. Using more advanced and granular data than in previous years, the 2016 analysis shows an increase from 2015 in the overall number of homes at risk of storm surge as well as an increase in the reconstruction value of these homes. Despite the overall increases, the 2016 analysis shows a decrease in the most extreme category for both the number and value of homes at risk.

(Storm Category) Total Homes Potentially Affected Total Estimated

RCV

(U.S. Dollars) Extreme

(Category 1-5 storm) 813,587 $191,973,679,305 Very High

(Category 2-5 storm) 1,658,151 $398,669,536,279 High

(Category 3-5 storm) 2,006,258 $455,622,094,460 Moderate

(Category 4-5 storm) 1,471,389 $332,852,780,000 Low

(Category 5 storm) 880,799 $166,974,115,052 Total 6,830,184 $1,546,092,205,096

“Using more granular-level data has given us an even clearer picture of which homes are at risk of storm surge damage,” said Dr. Tom Jeffery, senior hazard risk scientist for CoreLogic. “Despite the overall increases in risk, we were glad to see that the number and value of homes in the most extreme, and dangerous, category actually declined. It just goes to show the power of how advanced data can improve risk assessment at the property level.”

At the regional level, the Atlantic Coast has just under 3.9 million homes at risk of storm surge with an RCV of $953 billion, and the Gulf Coast has just over 2.9 million homes at risk with $592 billion in potential exposure to total destruction damage (Table 2).

At the state level, Texas and Florida, which have the longest coastal areas, consistently have more homes at risk than other states. Florida ranks first with 2.7 million at-risk homes across the five risk categories and Texas ranks third with 531,169 at-risk homes (Table 3). Since the number of homes at risk strongly correlates with the accompanying RCV, these two states rank first and fifth, respectively for having the largest RCV (Table 4). States with less coastal exposure but lower-lying elevations that extend farther inland, such as Louisiana (ranked second at 800,521 at-risk homes) and New Jersey (ranked fourth at 468,823 at-risk homes), tend to have more total homes at risk because of the potential for surge water to travel farther inland. Louisiana and New Jersey are also near the top of the list for RCV, with Louisiana totaling $184 billion (ranked second) and New Jersey totaling $139 billion (ranked fourth).

*The “Low” risk category is based on Category 5 hurricanes which are not likely along the northeastern Atlantic Coast. States in that area have N/A designated for the Low category due to the extremely low probability of a Category 5 storm affecting that area.

** Washington, D.C. has no Atlantic coastal homes, but can be affected by larger hurricanes that push storm surge into the Potomac River. Category 1 and 2 storms will likely not generate sufficient storm surge to affect homes in Washington, D.C.

At the local level, 15 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) account for 67.3 percent of the 6.8 million total at-risk homes and 68.3 percent of the total $1.54 trillion RCV (Table 5). This disproportionate distribution of homes suggests that the location of hurricanes that hit land is often a more important factor than the number of storms that may occur during the year. The Miami CBSA, which includes Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, has the most homes at risk totaling 780,482 with an RCV of just under $144 billion. By comparison, the New York City CBSA has slightly fewer homes at risk at 719,373, but a significantly higher total RCV totaling $260 billion.

(U.S. Dollars) 1 Miami, FL 780,482 $143,949,383,422 2 New York, NY 719,373 $260,195,234,842 3 Tampa, FL 454,746 $80,627,283,072 4 New Orleans, LA 390,806 $94,043,948,226 5 Virginia Beach, VA-NC 385,084 $83,472,805,334 6 Cape Coral, FL 306,953 $61,989,183,591 7 Houston, TX 280,112 $51,868,761,737 8 Bradenton, FL 250,615 $47,331,097,845 9 Naples, FL 180,919 $43,178,509,775 10 Jacksonville, FL 166,709 $35,807,031,655 11 Philadelphia, PA 165,940 $31,884,862,628 12 Charleston, SC 145,356 $36,193,547,227 13 Boston, MA 129,167 $38,480,093,842 14 Myrtle Beach, NC 123,645 $21,588,181,602 15 Lafayette, LA 119,942 $25,831,094,601 Total 4,599,849 $1,056,441,019,399

To illustrate varying degrees of flood risk exposure, the analysis compares homes that are not located within FEMA 100-year floodplains against the number of homes located in surge inundation zones, as well as those located in both surge and FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA). This data can be found in the full report at:

http://www.corelogic.com/landing-pages/2016-corelogic-storm-surge-risk-report.aspx?WT.mc_id=prnw_160526_uk8kN

All charts produced by CoreLogic