Study Quantifies Rise in School Shootings and Fatalities Since 1970

The incidence of school shootings more than quadrupled over the past 53 years, according to a study analyzing data from the Center for Homeland Defense and Security.

The study, published in the Journal of the American College of Surgeons, analyzed 2,056 school shooting incidents involving 3,083 victims in a period ending in May 2022, including 2,033 children ages 5-17 and 1,050 adults ages 18-74.

Key Study Findings Include:

• The number of school shootings annually has increased from 20 incidents in 1970 to 251 in 2021.Victims and shooters were predominantly male—77% and 96%, respectively.
• Nearly two-thirds of the shooters were under the age of 17 years.
• Handguns were by far the most common weapon used in school shootings, accounting for 84%, followed by rifles (7%) and shotguns (4%).
• Rifles were the deadliest weapon, with a fatality-to-wounded ratio of 0.45 vs. 0.41 for shooters using multiple weapons, 0.35 for handguns, and 0.30 for shotguns.
• From 1970 to 2021, the rate of children being school shooting victims more than quadrupled, from 0.49 to 2.21 per 1 million population. Deaths increased more than sixfold, from 0.16 to 0.97 per 1 million population.
• California had the most school shootings (214), followed by Texas (176), and Florida (120). However, the District of Columbia had the highest rate of school shootings per 100 schools (5.5), followed by Delaware (5.4), and Louisiana (4.6).

The study notes five key steps to a public health approach to prevent school shootings:

• Defining and monitoring school shootings
• Implementing preventative interventions
• Identifying factors that pose risks or offer protection
• Testing the effectiveness of interventions
• Ensuring widespread adoption of the most successful approaches

The study also suggests that preventative initiatives should incorporate recommendations for safe firearm storage from the American College of Surgeons Committee on Trauma Firearm Strategy Team.

The study is published as an article in press on the JACS website.