NOAA Chimes in With Prediction of Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season

May 24, 2024 by

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an 85% chance of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, with up to 25 named storms.

“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation,” NOAA said.

Related: Greater Chance of Major Hurricane on East Coast This Year, Less in Gulf, Scientist Says

The hurricane season—June 1 to November 30—is expected to have 17-25 named storms of which 8-13 could be hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or more, according to NOAA. The season is predicted to include 4-7 major hurricanes of 111mph of more, it added.

“Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges,” NOAA said.

AccuWeather has previously warned of a “super-charged” 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

In April, the team at Colorado State University, who have been forecasting hurricanes in the Atlantic for more than 40 years, said activity in 2024 will be “extremely active.” Due to release it’s next forecast on June 11, the team led by Senior Research Scientist Philip J. Klotzbach called in April for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.

Speaking recently at a Target Markets Program Administrators Association meeting, Klotzbach said, “There’s a lot of excitement and nervousness about this year’s hurricane season.”

The average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season saw 20 named storms, ranking fourth for the most named storms in a year since 1950, said the NOAA.