Tesla Analyst Nearly Crashes While Using ‘Full Self-Driving’

Elon Musk has said during Tesla Inc.’s last two earnings calls that investors won’t understand the company unless they’re using the driver-assistance system marketed as Full Self-Driving.

William Stein, a Truist Securities analyst with a hold rating on Tesla’s stock, took this as his cue to test-drive one of the carmaker’s vehicles, and narrowly avoided a crash.

“The Model Y accelerated through an intersection as the car in front of us had only partly completed a right turn,” Stein wrote in a report to clients Monday. “My quick intervention was absolutely required to avoid an otherwise certain accident.”

Stein, who maintained his rating and $215 price target, emerged from the experience “befuddled at what Tesla might show” at an unveiling of robotaxi prototypes in October. Musk said last week that the company decided to delay the event by about two months, confirming an earlier Bloomberg News report.

Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on Stein’s report. Musk posted Monday on X that the carmaker is deploying an updated version of Full Self-Driving, or FSD, which doesn’t make the company’s vehicles autonomous.

Musk has placed greater emphasis on FSD and Tesla’s broader artificial intelligence efforts as sales of its electric vehicles have slowed. The chief executive officer’s messaging has helped support a stock that had sunk more than 40% for the year as of mid-April. The shares were down 12% as of last week’s close and climbed Monday after Morgan Stanley designated Tesla its new top pick among US auto stocks.

Stein gave FSD a try earlier in April, following Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call, and again this month. He wrote up a mixed review the first time around — “stunningly good, but not useful today” — and summed up the second test run as “no better, arguably worse.”

Both of Stein’s drives were around New York suburbs in clear and dry conditions. He was impressed during his latest test how well FSD adapted to lane closures, potholes and traffic flows, and said the driving “felt more natural overall” than the prior trial.

What was surprising and went poorly, he said, was the system’s permissiveness — he was no longer required to tug on the steering wheel to keep FSD engaged, and was able to continue using it even while taking his eyes off the road.

“I turned my head completely away from the road,” Stein wrote, adding that his son kept a lookout for any danger. “The system continued for 20-40 seconds before issuing a warning.”

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In addition to intervening to avoid rear-ending a car that only partly completed a right turn, Stein said another intervention was required when a police officer used hand motions to signal he needed to pull to the side of the road for a funeral procession to pass.

“Finally, in a section of our route, the highway was curvy and narrow, and had a solid white line separating lanes, signaling a prohibition against lane changes,” Stein wrote. “Still, the Model Y switched lanes twice under that condition.”

Stein concluded that the version of FSD he tested was “truly amazing, but not even close to ‘solving’ autonomy,” alluding to language Musk has repeatedly used.

Top photo: A touch screen inside a Tesla Inc. Model S electric vehicle displayed at a Tesla Motors Japan store in Tokyo, Japan, on Friday, Aug. 18, 2023. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has arrived in Japan for his first known visit in nine years. Photographer: Shoko Takayasu/Bloomberg.