AccuWeather: Tropical Threat Developing in Atlantic Could be Next Named Storm

Debby could be the next name most frequently out of the mouths of hurricane watchers and emergency responders.

Meteorologists tracking a new threat to the Caribbean and the U.S. coast say a developing tropical rainstorm in the Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles has a 60% chance of strengthening into a named storm later this week or weekend and potentially bring impacts to the U.S. this weekend or early next week.

The storm follows several quiet weeks in the tropics in the wake of Hurricane Beryl, which Moody’s estimates caused $2.5 billion to $4.5 billion in insured losses.

Related: U.S. Severe Storms Continue to Drive Global Natural Disaster Losses: Gallagher Re

“The tropical rainstorm is currently battling a harsh environment in a sea of dry air as it moves west across the Atlantic,” stated Alex DaSilva, an AccuWeather hurricane expert.

The rainstorm is moving through an area that is not conducive for development, but it is expected to soon move into an area with more favorable conditions. If this tropical rainstorm is able to intensify into a tropical storm, it would be named Debby.

The tropical rainstorm is moving through an area with very warm waters that can support development, however it is expected to also encounter disruptive wind shear over the next 24 hours that can change in direction or speed of winds at different heights in the atmosphere.

“Toward the end of this week, the tropical rainstorm will move into an area with fairly low wind shear and ample moisture, and that could allow some organization and strengthening,” DaSilva stated.

Related: CSU Research Team Increases Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

If the storm tracks north or south of the Greater Antilles rather than over the islands, it will have a better chance to develop. A rainstorm that bounces westward, along the high mountains of the Greater Antilles, would likely struggle to organize. However, if the center stays away from the islands and their mountains, the waters are sufficiently warm enough to allow organization and strengthening.

Should the storm track north of the big islands in the northern Caribbean later this week, it would more likely become a concern for the Bahamas and the East Coast of the U.S., or should the storm track just south of the big islands, it may be more concerning for the U.S. Gulf Coast over the weekend and into early next week, according to AccuWeather.

By later this weekend to early next week, the storm could be turning northward along the U.S. Atlantic coast or if the storm tracks further to the south and west, it could be churning waters over the Gulf of Mexico prior to moving onshore. This threat could also create rough surf and dangerous rip currents, according to AccuWeather.

AccuWeather expert meteorologists are predicting an “explosive” hurricane season with 20-25 named storms and four to six direct impacts to the U.S. this year.

Hurricane Beryl was the latest example highlighting the concern that meteorologists and long-range experts have been warning about since March, with extremely warm waters increasing the odds of rapid intensification and devastating impacts at landfall. As dry air diminishes and the effects of La Niña unfold late this summer and fall, meteorologists expect a flurry of tropical threats during the peak of hurricane season.