Fall Forecast Calls for Stubborn Heat, Increased Wildfire Risks, Severe Weather

Summer heat is expected to last well into autumn across much of America, bringing an increased risk of wildfires and severe weather—especially in the Western U.S. and California.

Much of the nation will experience a delayed transition to cooler temperatures this year, following a summer with intense heat, according to AccuWeather, which issued its 2024 U.S. Fall Forecast on Wednesday.

Record-high temperatures have been seen in several cities across California, Nevada, Oregon, Utah and North Carolina this summer, and more record temperatures may follow in the fall, according to AccuWeather.

Related: Wildfire in California Now State’s Fifth Largest on Record, Destroyed 277 Structures

The forecast anticipates temperatures hovering at 1 to 3 degrees or more above the historical average across much of the country, and most of the time, from September through November.

AccuWeather’s long-range forecasters say the highest temperature departures are expected across parts of the Great Lakes region, the Midwest and the Rockies.

The only areas where above-historical average temperatures are not expected this autumn are in Florida, parts of coastal Texas, Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina and coastal locales along California, Oregon and Washington.

Related: California Wildfire Outlook: ‘A Challenging Season for Firefighters’

The Pacific Northwest is the only region that may expect an early arrival of fall-like weather, including some early-season storms. The arrival of cooler, wetter weather will help to put an early end to a short but intense wildfire season across parts of Washington, Oregon and Idaho.

The transition to cooler fall air is known for sparking the “second severe weather season” as waves of cold air begin to dive southward, clashing with the warm and humid air across much of the central and eastern U.S., according to the forecast.

According to AccuWeather, there have been more than 1,400 tornado reports this year, and even more tornadoes from hurricanes and tropical storms could make landfall this fall.

Related: Potent Hurricane Weather Pattern Continues to Take Shape, Forecaster Says

AccuWeather has forecast between 20 to 25 named storms and four to six direct impacts to the U.S. this season.

Hurricane Beryl produces several tornados as it made landfall in Texas, spinning up dozens of destructive tornadoes along a 1,400-mile-long path from the Gulf Coast through upstate New York, according to AccuWeather.

The forecast also calls for wildfire activity to increase in September. It calls for 40,000 to 50,000 wildfires this year, below the historical average of 68,707 wildfires annually.

Related: Extreme Weather Sends Insured Losses 70% Above Historical Norms

AccuWeather forecasters predict 6 million to 8 million acres of land to burn across the nation this year, and for 1.5 million to 2.5 million acres of land to burn in California, which is more than the 1 million acres burned in the state last year.