Hurricane Rafael Menaces Florida Keys on Path to US Gulf

Hurricane Rafael is quickly strengthening as it churns toward the Gulf of Mexico, threatening to bring damaging gusts and heavy rains to populated areas from the Cayman Islands to South Florida.

Winds reached 100 miles (160 kilometers) per hour as the storm barrels toward Cuba, where it’s expected to make landfall later Wednesday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an update at 7 a.m. New York time. That makes it a Category 2 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale.

Rafael is “expected to be near major hurricane intensity” upon landfall, the agency said. Even if the storm weakens slightly over Cuba, it will likely re-emerge as a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, it added.

The system is forecast to bring deluges and mudslides to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands through early Thursday. The Florida Keys could also see localized flooding, as well as the possibility of tornadoes, according to a bulletin from the National Weather Service.

After that, forecasters are less certain about Rafael’s trajectory. The storm could veer west and dissipate over open Gulf waters, or it could be steered into the central Gulf coast by a trough coming off a separate storm system. Shell Plc and Chevron Corp. are among the oil producers that evacuated some staff from platforms ahead of Rafael.

If it turns toward the coast, “we’d be looking at a weakening tropical storm at landfall, which would hopefully help mitigate significant impacts,” said Adam Douty, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.

Rafael is the 11th hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin this season. Forecasters at Colorado State University — which publishes an annual outlook — had predicted the season would be “extremely active,” producing 12 hurricanes before formally ending Nov. 30.

Top photo: Residents move their belongings to a safe place ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Artemisa province, Cuba, on Nov. 5. Photographer: Yamil Lage/AFP/Getty Images.