Car Sales to Grow Modestly in 2025 as Global Output Falters

Auto sales around the world are expected to grow marginally next year on increased supplies of vehicles, but production levels are likely to fall as carmakers seek to rein in inventory levels, according to S&P Global Mobility estimates.

Global sales of light vehicles, which include passenger cars, sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks, will rise 1.7% in 2025 to 89.6 million units, based in part on continued improvement in supply chain stability, S&P projected in a news release issued Friday. For the US alone, sales will grow 1.2% on the year to 16.2 million vehicles.

Light vehicle output worldwide will decline 0.4% next year to 88.7 million units, including a 2.9% drop in US production to 9.9 million vehicles, S&P estimated. That signals unease in the global auto industry about demand resiliency. China and South America are the only regions likely to see production gains, it said.

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US President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose greater tariffs on auto imports and vow to remove subsidies spurring electric vehicle adoption could act as a damper on worldwide output levels.

“The production landscape will change dramatically, as global trade slows, and as retaliatory measures are likely to emerge,” Mark Fulthorpe, S&P Global Mobility’s executive director of global light vehicle forecasting, said in a statement.

S&P Global Mobility sees worldwide sales of electric vehicles continuing to gain momentum despite uncertainty about policy support for them in the US. EV deliveries are set to jump 30% in 2025 to 15.1 million units, making up about 17% of total light vehicles sales globally, it said.

Top Photo: Used vehicles for sale at a dealership in Colma, California.(David Paul Morris/Bloomberg)