Goldman Cuts US Auto Sales Estimate by Nearly 1 Million Units Due to Tariffs

Goldman Sachs on Thursday cut its estimate for automobile sales in the U.S. for this year by nearly 1 million units, as President Donald Trump’s tariffs make it more expensive to buy a vehicle.

While Trump on Wednesday halted reciprocal tariffs on countries, barring China, for 90 days, the announcement did not appear to affect duties on autos, steel and aluminum, leading to concerns around increased costs for the sector.

“We believe the tariffs as proposed will raise the cost of both importing and manufacturing vehicles in the U.S. by at least a low to mid single digit thousand dollar level on average,” said Goldman Sachs analysts led by Mark Delaney.

However, it will be hard for the auto industry to completely pass on this additional cost to customers, especially with softening demand, the brokerage added.

The Wall Street giant estimates net prices of new vehicles in the U.S. will rise by roughly $2,000 to $4,000 over the next 6-12 months as automakers account for tariff-related costs.

Goldman Sachs now expects U.S. auto sales of 15.40 million units in 2025, compared with its previous estimates of 16.25 million units. It lowered estimates for 2026 sales by 1.1 million to 15.25 million units.

The investment bank also lowered its estimate for global auto production this year to 88.7 million units from 90.4 million units earlier. Global production estimates for 2026 were cut to 90.7 million units from 92.6 million.

Among stocks, the brokerage cut its rating on Ford’s shares to ‘neutral’ from ‘buy’, citing intense competition internationally, weak consumer demand and higher costs from tariffs.

The automaker last week announced discounts across multiple models, as it leans on its healthy inventory which exceeds industry average, boosting sales before price hikes.

Shares of Ford fell nearly 5% in morning trading, while GM declined 5.2%. Stellantis slumped 11.8% in the U.S.

(Reporting by Parmar in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)