Forecast Calls for 11–16 Named Storms, 2-4 Major Atlantic Hurricanes
A new forecast calls for a “near- to below-historical-average” hurricane season in the Atlantic in 2026 with 11 to 16 named storms, four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes.
AccuWeather’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast also calls for three to five direct impacts. The 2026 season is forecast to fall below the 10-year average for total storms and hurricanes.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1.
The forecast points to a developing El Niño for holding down overall tropical activity to near or below historical average levels with an expected increase in disruptive wind shear reducing storm activity, especially later in the season. AccuWeather says there is a 15% possibility of a Super El Niño developing in the second half of the hurricane season.
El Niño seasons produce an average of 10 named storms and five hurricanes, compared with 15 storms and eight hurricanes during La Niña years. Neutral seasons average 13 named storms and seven hurricanes, according to AccuWeather.
Despite the reduced risk from fewer expected storms, forecaster warn that Atlantic waters can fuel stronger storms.
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“Water temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are forecast to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer. That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms,” Alex DaSilva, an AccuWeather hurricane expert stated. “As a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season.”
Areas with higher-than-historical-average risk of significant tropical impacts in 2026 in the forecast are Central and eastern Gulf Coast, the Carolinas and parts of the Virginia coastline.
Central and southern Texas are areas with lower-than-historical-average risk of significant tropical impacts in 2026.
Last season produced three powerful Category 5 hurricanes despite near-average named storms.