El Niño and Heat Fuel Destructive Storms Across Pacific Ocean

A strengthening El Niño is stirring up a dangerous mix of typhoons and hurricanes across the Pacific, fueling storms that have killed hundreds, disrupted trade and caused billions of dollars in damage.

Across the western Pacific, that burst of activity has brought a destructive mix of flooding, deaths and economic damage. Another storm neared Japan on Monday and more could be possible in the region through November.

The situation stands in contrast to a very quiet Atlantic, which has had its calmest start since 1941. Pacific cyclones have caused more than 230 deaths since April, media reports show, while natural disasters — including three back-to-back storms — caused an estimated $8.5 billion in direct economic losses in China in July alone, according to government statistics.

“Beyond the number of storms, what is striking is the scale of flooding, displacement, and economic disruption already seen in places including southern China, the Philippines, and the Mariana Islands,” said Graeme Riddell, who leads climate and sustainability consulting for Asia Pacific at Marsh.

The disruption hasn’t been confined to communities in the storms’ paths. Container shipping giant Maersk issued an advisory this month saying a string of severe typhoons had caused congestion at some of the region’s biggest ports, reducing on-time vessel arrivals at a time when supply chains are already strained by war, trade disputes and rising prices.

Driving the activity are two overlapping sources of ocean heat. El Niño, which occurs when the equatorial Pacific warms and the atmosphere above it reacts, has been strengthening since it emerged in June and is creating conditions that favor tropical cyclones across much of the Pacific.

Beyond the waters directly affected by El Niño, an ocean heat wave linked to climate change has spread across parts of the eastern Pacific, said Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center.

“The warm blob off the coast of Mexico is providing rocket fuel for tropical disturbances forming there, and El Niño is helping by reducing the vertical wind shear that rips storms apart,” Francis said. “About 90% of the heat trapped by extra greenhouse gases — produced mainly by burning fossil fuels and destroying forests — goes into heating the ocean.”

The result has been an unusually crowded ocean. Twelve tropical cyclones formed across the basin and the South China Sea in August, the most in a single month since 1961, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.

“Further activity is expected throughout the rest of September and through October, and perhaps into November, as El Niño strengthens and reaches its forecast peak values,” said James Cosgrove, Associate Director Manager, Insurance Solutions at Moody’s.

The central and eastern Pacific have been busy, too. At least 17 systems have reached tropical storm strength, with six becoming hurricanes and four reaching major status with winds of 111 miles (179 kilometers) per hour or more.

Hawaii has had five close calls. Hurricane Lowell triggered storm warnings on Oahu and Kauai earlier this month and spawned Hawaii’s first tornado watch, while Hurricane Lala came within miles of striking the Big Island in August.

Even California found itself battered by waves more familiar to the US East Coast. Tropical Storm Marie passed hundreds of miles offshore earlier this month but flooded parts of the coastline and raised the risk of dangerous rip currents for swimmers.

More potential systems are being watched as thunderstorms and showers begin to coalesce off the coast of Mexico. In the western Pacific, Typhoon Dujuan is set to drench Tokyo over the long holiday weekend.

The perils won’t necessarily end as the Northern Hemisphere cools and tropical cyclones fade away. El Niño is forecast to continue strengthening toward its peak later this year, when its influence can bring another round of weather extremes far beyond the Pacific.