Chiquita Sees Cheap Bananas at Risk on El Niño Supply Threat
Bananas are in danger of becoming the next item in the grocery aisles to see price hikes, thanks in part to a powerful El Niño and war, says one of the top sellers of the fruit.
“The industry is facing extreme weather conditions, facing geopolitical disruptions,” Carlos López Flores, chief executive officer of Chiquita Brands International, said in an interview. “The economics to produce tropical fruit is getting more expensive.”
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The CEO predicts the industry will sell fewer bananas in 2027 and likely at a higher cost, potentially making next year the most difficult for the industry in decades.
“We are forecasting a very challenging end of 2026 and a very challenging start of next year for the industry,” he said, adding that El Niño and geopolitical disruptions make it more difficult for Latin America suppliers to grow bananas.
That could ultimately mean higher prices for consumers who’ve been shielded from price hikes for years.
Food prices around the world have soared, thanks to elevated costs to grow and transport agricultural goods along with war-related disruptions and the impacts of bad weather on crops. Bananas largely avoided price volatility, providing stability to consumers trying to tame rising household grocery bills.
Bananas generated $12.8 billion in export revenue in 2025, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. But companies have faced slim margins for years, having to source supply year-round and race the fruit across the world before it ripens, all to sell for less than a dollar a pound.
Chiquita is one of the world’s biggest banana traders, whose iconic brand dates back more than 80 years, so the CEO’s outlook carries weight. The company has its own farms and also buys from outside suppliers, sourcing all its fruit from Latin America.
López Flores said the Middle East conflict has already pushed up costs for fuel, fertilizer and packaging that have been hard to pass on to customers. Now, he sees an intensifying El Niño posing a new threat for Latin America, the world’s top banana exporting region.
The phenomenon brings heavy rains across Ecuador and Peru while triggering severe droughts across the Amazon basin and northeastern Brazil. Flooding downpours in Ecuador, the top supplier, can amplify plant disease, spoil crops and wash out roads.
El Niño-driven drought can sap Panama Canal water levels, undercutting a vital shipping link for nearby growing nations.
Chiquita is already in early negotiations with retailers about supply deals and pricing for next year, López Flores said. Talks so far have been more about “surety of supply” than price hikes, but he said Chiquita has discussed with buyers the added costs filtering through the banana supply chain.
The industry typically sells most bananas through long-term deals on future output at fixed costs, giving suppliers little ability to pass on unexpected increases in farm costs.
It’s unclear how willing retailers would be willing to accept higher prices or how those would sit with consumers, who are used to bananas being among the cheapest items at the grocery store.
Bananas sold in US cities averaged around 66 cents a pound last month, according to government data, less than half the price of oranges and grapefruit. Unlike other pantry staples, banana prices have barely budged for years — rising just 14% over a decade.
López Flores said Chiquita is committed to providing a reliable source of bananas to customers and consumers despite the struggles of Latin American producers.
“Everybody in that region who grows bananas will tell you today it is more difficult, more expensive and less predictable to grow bananas than it was a year ago,” he said. “It will be more challenging.”