NHC: Rafael is West of Florida Keys and Weakened as it Heads to Southern Gulf

Hurricane Rafael, which struck Cuba with heavy rainfall and flooding as well as gusts and rain in the Florida Keys on Wednesday, is now just over 200 miles to the West of Keys, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The storm’s maximum sustained winds have decreased to roughly 100 mph, but it is still a dangerous hurricane, according to NHC.

The storm is now moving to west-northwest at 9 mph.

The Florida Keys are experiencing wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph across much of the lower and middle Keys with some isolated heavy rainfall just to the east of Key West, according to NHC.

The forecast calls for Rafael to move westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next two to three days and then to take a more southwestward motion from Saturday into Sunday Monday or Tuesday of next week.

“The track forecast is still somewhat uncertain out here at the longer time ranges and we could see a stall or a meandering toward the north but we’re not expecting any direct threat to the northern Gulf Coast or any U.S. interests,” said the NHC’s Mike Brennan in a morning briefing on the storm.

Brennan said the environment around Rafael is “quite dry and we are expecting gradual to steady weakening over the next several days with Rafael becoming a tropical storm by the time we get to Saturday and continuing to weaken as it moves toward generally toward the South or southwest across the southern Gulf of Mexico.”

The National Weather Service had said the Florida Keys could see localized flooding, as well as the possibility of tornadoes. The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said on Thursday said that 17% of crude oil production and 7% of natural gas output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was shut in response to Hurricane Rafael.

The storm’s track and weakening appears to be good news for hurricane ravaged Florida.

Earlier this week, Florida’s state-created Citizens Property Insurance Corp., suspended binding on policies statewide as the storm approached.

As of Monday, Nov. 4, “Agents may not bind applications for new coverage or policy changes for increased coverage, regardless of effective date, when a tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning has been issued by the National Weather Service for any part of the State of Florida,” reads the suspension bulletin from Citizens.