Powerful El Niño Nears Record Strength, US Forecasters Say

The powerful El Niño that’s already disrupting global weather patterns has a 75% chance of becoming “a historic event,” surpassing all records dating back to 1950, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said.

El Niño will likely keep getting stronger through the end of the year, the center said in an update on Thursday. The more powerful it becomes, the more likely it threatens to affect global weather in predictable ways.

Related: Atlantic Hurricane Season Remains Most Tranquil Since 1941

El Niño, which emerged in June, has strengthened since then, worsening drought in Central America that slowed traffic through the Panama Canal and fueling wildfires in Indonesia that have pushed up palm oil prices. Those disruptions are adding to inflation and supply-chain pressures already heightened by the war in Iran.

The climate phenomenon has also suppressed hurricane activity across the Atlantic to some of the lowest levels since 1941, while boosting storms across the Pacific from Hawaii to China.

The coming winter is expected to bring more perils, including flooding in California, drought in parts of Australia and heat across India and southern Asia.

Related: Highest-Ever Ocean Temperature Measured as Super El Niño Forms

El Niño’s strength is measured using sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific. In a key region tracked by U.S. forecasters, waters are already 1.8C (3.24F) above normal and could exceed 2.5C, which would set a record. The warmer the ocean, the greater its potential to alter atmospheric circulation and weather patterns around the world.

The previous high came in 1982-83, when temperatures reached 2.4C above normal based on the relative oceanic Nino index, or RONI.

Top photo: Boats on Lake Guija as it experiences low water levels due to drought conditions in Metapan, El Salvador, on Sept. 1. Bloomberg.