US Forecaster Says El Niño Has 82% Chance of Developing by July

El Niño is likely to develop soon, with an 82% probability during May-July 2026, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.

El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a 96% chance in December 2026-February 2027, the U.S. weather forecaster said.

“While confidence in the occurrence of El Niño has increased since last month, there is still substantial uncertainty in the peak strength of El Niño, with no strength categorization exceeding a 37% chance,” the U.S. weather forecaster added.

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El Niño is a warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

El Niño results in unusually warmer water temperatures, increasing the chance of floods and drought, which can impact crops. When ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.

“A strong El Niño is expected to develop this year and could reach that level by the end of the summer,” Kyle Tapley, Enterprise Sales Executive at Vaisala Xweather’s WeatherDesk said.

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“The strongest correlation with weather patterns and El Niño is seen in Southeast Asia and Australia, where below normal rainfall typically leads to lower production of palm oil and wheat, respectively,” Tapley said.

Forecasts for the strongest El Niño in a decade promise hotter, drier weather across Asia in the second half of 2026, hitting crops and food supplies while farmers grapple with fertilizer shortages and costly fuel caused by the Iran war.

Rice supplies also may tighten as Asian farmers cut planting due to high input costs and El Niño risks.

Indonesia’s crude palm oil output this year may drop by up to 2 million metric tons compared to 2025 due to El Niño-related dry weather and high fertilizer prices driven by the war in Middle East.

There is a 90% chance that the El Niño phenomenon will occur by the summer, Japan’s weather bureau said on Tuesday.

(Reporting by Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Nick Zieminski)