CSU Lowers Atlantic Hurricane Forecast to ‘Well Below Normal’

Thanks to a strengthening El Niño , the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season will be well below normal, said researchers at Colorado State University.

In a July 8 update to its forecast, CSU said the 2026 hurricane season will have nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane. The first system, Tropical Storm Arthur, formed in June.

Related: ‘Snow Globe’ Effect, Quiet Cat Years, Super El Niño: Carriers Prepping for a Raucous Second Half

An average hurricane season, which runs June 1 to Nov. 30, has about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

CSU explained there is a “high potential” for a strong El Niño. The difficult-to-predict climate phenomenon produces vertical wind shear that typically prevents the formation of hurricanes. The CSU team said it expects El Niño to “dominate the tropical circulation during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.”

CSU’s original forecast in April called for a below-average season of 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Related: Weathering NOAA’s ‘Below Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season’ And A Super El Niño

Should CSU’s forecast hold up, 2026 would be the quietest season for hurricanes since 2015, when there were four hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The season of 2013 produced no major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger) and just two hurricanes.

The latest forecast from CSU gives a 17% chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline (the average from 1880–2020 is 43%).

Top photo: In this handout image released by the U.S. Air Force, a crew flies through Hurricane Melissa, over the Caribbean Sea on Oct. 27.